Potential CI Risk Indicators

Potential CI Risk Indicators

Potential counterintelligence (CI) risk indicators are observable behaviors, conditions, or circumstances that are useful in assessing the risk that an individual may become, or may already be, involved in espionage or terrorism. This list and categorization of counterintelligence risk indicators is prepared for two purposes: (1) to assist training of personnel security investigators and adjudicators in the recognition of risk indicators and the assessment of counterintelligence risk, and (2) to assist in developing guidance for what actions should be taken when potential counterintelligence risk indicators are recognized or discovered at various stages of the personnel security process.

The personnel security investigation and subsequent adjudication provide an opportunity to identify and evaluate these indicators. As described here, there are three broad categories of potential CI risk indicators with multiple subcategories. 1

These are called “potential” indicators because no single indicator constitutes evidence of terrorism, espionage, or any other unauthorized use of classified or other protected information. Most counterintelligence risk indicators are what might be called “soft” indicators. That is, each indicator only tells us that something may happen or may already be happening, not that it will happen or actually is happening. Each specific behavior may have several possible explanations, and each particular condition or circumstance may have several possible outcomes. Therefore, most single indicators have limited significance. However, they alert the investigator or adjudicator that further inquiry may be appropriate to clarify the situation and determine if other indicators are also present.

The significance of any single indicator is greatly influenced by the presence of certain other indicators, and various combinations of indicators may form a pattern that is a valid basis for doubt or suspicion. Two types of interaction between risk indicators are especially important.

The modus operandi for the recruitment of spies and the conduct of espionage often follows well-established patterns. These often make it possible for a counterintelligence specialist to recognize scenarios, or combinations of indicators, associated with foreign intelligence activity.

Use of CI Risk Indicators
For Personnel Security Decisions

Evaluation of the possibility that an applicant for security clearance or a current clearance holder is now a foreign agent, or is at risk of later becoming a foreign agent, is a principal underlying purpose of the personnel security process. However, this is a difficult evaluation to make, and two significant problems arise when seeking to perform this function in the most efficient and effective manner.

In order to deploy limited personnel security resources in the most effective manner, it would be helpful to have a system of triage to guide an optimal, risk-based allocation of resources to various types of cases. The comprehensive list of counterintelligence risk indicators in this report, broken down into analytically useful categories, may facilitate the development of such a system.

Decision points where counterintelligence indicators should play a role include the following:

Which action may be most appropriate in any given case depends upon the specific combination of indicators that are present. There is no national investigative standard that specifies what action is appropriate under which circumstances, and the Adjudicative Guidelines for Determining Eligibility for Access to Classified Information address counterintelligence issues only indirectly.

Potential Indicators of Being
Or Becoming a Target for Recruitment

There are three types of indicators that an individual may become or is already a target for recruitment by a foreign intelligence collector. The first includes circumstances over which the individual has no control, but which make them an attractive target. The second is specific behaviors by the individual that may attract the attention of an intelligence collector and lead to the individual becoming a target. The third is circumstances that may indicate the individual already is a target.

A substantial percentage of cleared personnel are vulnerable to becoming a recruitment target through no fault of their own simply because of the nature of the information to which they have access, where they are stationed or travel, or their ethnic or cultural background. It is emphasized that being a recruitment target does not reflect poorly on the individual. It is very different from saying that an individual is susceptible to recruitment. However, just being a target for recruitment is a risk factor, because it increases the likelihood that any susceptibility to recruitment that does exist will be discovered by a foreign intelligence collector.

Circumstances Beyond the Subject's Control

One of the most important risk factors is the country in which the subject maintains contacts or where an individual is assigned or resides. Almost 100 countries were involved in legal and illegal efforts to collect intelligence in the United States during 2004, but the bulk of the activity originates in a relatively small number of key countries. These key countries include friends and allies as well as strategic competitors that conduct a systematic program of espionage against the United States for one or more of the following reasons:

Foreign intelligence collectors find it easier to contact, build rapport with, assess, and manipulate individuals with whom they share some common interest – including a shared national, ethnic, or religious background. Also, it is much easier for foreign intelligence collectors or terrorist groups to contact, assess, and recruit Americans when the American is in the intelligence collector’s home country. Therefore, the following circumstances increase the likelihood that an individual will become a target.

Behaviors that Attract Foreign Attention

Some behaviors in a foreign country, or when interacting with foreign officials or other foreign nationals in the United States, are known to attract the interest of foreign intelligence collectors or terrorist groups. Again, the significance of most of these behaviors depends in part on the country involved. The significance is greater if the foreign country is known to target American citizens to obtain protected information and/or is associated with a risk of terrorism.

Indicators of Already Being a Target

It is not at all unusual for Americans traveling or living abroad to see signs of being cultivated, observed, or monitored by the local security or intelligence service. Indicators of being a target include the following:

Potential Indicators of Susceptibility
To Espionage or Terrorist Activity

Susceptibility to espionage or terrorism includes both the susceptibility to being recruited by a foreign interest and susceptibility to volunteering one’s services to the foreign interest. (Most recruits are volunteers.) Susceptibility to recruitment also includes both susceptibility to inducements to cooperate and vulnerability to pressure or coercion. As with all indicators, their significance depends in large part on the foreign country involved. It is greater if the country is known to target aggressively American citizens to obtain protected information and/or is associated with a risk of terrorism. The significance of all foreign contacts also depends upon the closeness of the tie, frequency of the contact, and the occupation and interests of the foreign contact.

Indicators of Conflicting Interests

Indicators of Vulnerability
to Pressure or Duress

Most spies volunteer their services or are willing recruits, but aggressive foreign intelligence and security services do use pressure and duress when it serves their purposes. There are two general circumstances when an individual is vulnerable to pressure or duress. One is when an individual engages in conduct that, if exposed, could cause the person to have severe problems with spouse, family, or employer or adversely affect the person's personal, professional, or community standing. The other is the presence of a relative or friend in the foreign country whose life might be either improved or made more difficult, depending upon whether or not the subject cooperates with the foreign intelligence or security service.

Even when an individual is vulnerable to pressure or duress, the foreign intelligence recruiter will usually try to avoid outright coercion whenever possible. Intelligence operatives understand human nature and know that a willing spy will be more effective and more trustworthy than one who is coerced to cooperate. A foreign intelligence or security service might first ask for cooperation and offer inducements rather than make threats. For example, it can make the life of the target’s relative or friend better as well as worse, and it is more likely to be successful with the carrot than the stick. If the recruitment target is already fearful of what will happen if he or she refuses, explicit threats may be unnecessary.

Vulnerability to pressure or duress is difficult to assess, as the vulnerability exists in the mind of the individual concerned. Different individuals may react quite differently to the same circumstance. Many individuals who want to obtain or retain a security clearance will automatically answer no if asked whether a certain circumstance makes them vulnerable to coercion, as they recognize this might lead to denial of access to classified information. Some do, however, admit their vulnerability.

Indicators of vulnerability to pressure or duress include the following:

Indicators of Competing Identities

Competing identities are defined as the dual self-identifications experienced by individuals who were raised as citizens of a foreign country but have since established their residence in the United States. Indicators are used to assess the degree to which the individual remains identified with his or her native country and the degree to which he or she has assimilated American culture and values. The focus here is only on indicators of continued identification with one’s native country. A more complete list of such indicators is available in the reference. 3

Many naturalized American citizens feel some degree of loyalty to both the United States and their native country, and most of the time this is not a problem. However, if an individual is motivated to help the economic development or military defense of his or her native country against a hostile neighbor, the two loyalties may conflict when that individual gains access to classified or other protected information of substantial value to the native country. This conflict can be exacerbated by a personal belief that the United States is wrong in not sharing this information. It could also be exacerbated by a financial need that could be satisfied by selling this information. Persons in this situation sometimes rationalize their actions as not being harmful to the United States.

An individual may continue to identify primarily with his or her native country if he or she:

Indicators of Personal Weaknesses

There is no single profile of the employee who is likely to betray an employer’s trust. Motivation for espionage is believed to result from a complex interaction between personal weaknesses and situational circumstances. The personal weaknesses include some of the potentially disqualifying factors covered by the Adjudicative Guidelines, but also a number of personality characteristics that are often found in persons who commit espionage and other white-collar criminals.4,5 These same personality characteristics are also found to some degree in many law-abiding and successful individuals, so they are by no means disqualifying by themselves. These behaviors are discussed in greater detail in the separate file in this module on Behavior Patterns and Personality Characteristics Associated with Espionage. The indicator always refers to a pattern of undesirable behavior, not a single example of such behavior.

Potential Indicators of Espionage,
Terrorism, or Subversive Activity

Being a spy requires that one engage in certain observable behaviors. There is usually some personal contact with a foreign intelligence operative who recruits the spy or to whom the spy volunteers his or her services. The spy must obtain information, often information to which the spy does not have normal or regular access. This information usually needs to be copied and then removed from the office. The information is then communicated to the foreign intelligence service, and this often requires keeping or preparing materials at home and traveling to signal sites or secret meetings at unusual times and places. The spy may receive large sums of money which then may be deposited, spent, or hidden. Periods of high stress sometimes affect the spy’s behavior.

Behaviors associated with espionage or terrorism sometimes deviate from the norm in such a way that they come to the attention of other people and must be explained. Other people sometimes become suspicious and pass their suspicions on to others. This sometimes comes out during a security clearance reinvestigation.

While an indicator’s existence may be known, the counterintelligence implications of the indicator are frequently not recognized. Even in circumstances where the indicator has aroused suspicion, personnel may fail to act, or act improperly on that knowledge. The record of past espionage cases shows that coworkers and supervisors often ignored or failed to report counterintelligence indicators which, had they been reported, would have permitted earlier detection of the spy. In some cases, disciplinary actions were taken against the offender, but the matter was never considered from a counterintelligence perspective. See related information in the file Reporting Espionage Indicators.

Indicators of Recruitment

Indicators of Information Collection

Indicators of Information Transmittal

Indicators of Illegal Income

Indicators of Terrorist Activity

Although a terrorist might also steal information like a spy, the typical terrorist is engaged in planning, preparing, supporting or executing some violent terrorist action. The behaviors that might indicate or reveal terrorist preparations are quite different from the behavior of a spy. Alert employees who recognize and report these clues play a significant role in helping to protect our country against terrorist attacks and other subversive activities. The following are potential indicators that an individual may be involved in planning a terrorist attack.

Indicators of Support for Terrorism

As compared with espionage, which is usually conducted by individuals working alone, a terrorist attack is usually a group activity conducted by a small, clandestine cell which is often loosely associated with a larger network or organized group. Therefore, support for terrorism is often indicated by whom an individual associates with, certain public actions or Internet use, and or expressed support for a terrorist ideology.

Any support or advocacy of terrorism, or association or sympathy with persons or organizations that are promoting or threatening the use of force or violence, is a concern even if the individual is not directly involved in planning a terrorist attack. Of particular current concern is any expression of militant jihadist ideology, but this also includes the extremist groups discussed under Allegiance to the United States.

-- Militant jihad against the West is a religious duty before God and, therefore, necessary for the salvation of one’s soul. Peaceful existence with the West is a dangerous illusion. Only two camps exist. There can be no middle ground in an apocalyptic showdown between Islam and the forces of evil.

-- The separation of church and state is a sin. Democratic laws are illegitimate and sinful, because they are “man-made” laws expressing the will of the electorate rather than God. The only true law is Sharia, the law sent down by God, which governs not only religious rituals but many aspects of day-to-day life.

-- Muslim governments that cooperate with the West and that have not imposed Sharia law are religiously unacceptable and must be violently overthrown.

Other Behavioral Indicators

Footnotes

1. This list is a combination and consolidation of many lists prepared by various persons and organizations for various purposes during the past 15 years.

2. Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, Annual report to Congress on foreign economic collection and industrial espionage - 2005. NCIX 2005-10006, April 2005.

3. Krofcheck, J.L., & Gelles, M.G. (2006). Behavioral consultation in personnel security: Training and reference manual for personnel security professionals. (Appendix A: Assessing Competing Identities). Yarrow Associates.

4. Several government agencies have conducted comprehensive psychological assessments of their employees arrested for espionage, and an Intelligence Community project has interviewed and administered psychological tests to a number of Americans serving jail terms for espionage. Most interviews and tests were conducted after conviction and incarceration and were subject to agreements that protect the privacy of the offenders. Privacy and security considerations preclude public release of these studies.

5. Gottfredson, M.R., & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Parker, J.P., & Wiskoff, M.F. (1992). Temperament constructs related to betrayal of trust (Tech. Report 92-002). Monterey, CA: Defense Personnel Security Research Center. Collins, J.M., & Schmidt, F.L. (1993). Personality, integrity, and white collar crime: A construct validity study. Personnel Psychology, 46, 295-311. Brodsky, S.L., & Smitherman, H.O. (1983). Handbook of scales for research in crime and delinquency. New York: Plenum Press. Hogan, R., & Hogan, J. (1989). How to measure employee reliability, 74, 273-279. Collins, J.M., & Muchinsky, P.M. (1994). Fraud in the executive offices: Personality differentiation of white collar criminality among managers. Paper presented at 23rd International Congress of Applied Psychology, Madrid, Spain.

6. Department of State. (2005, April). Global jihad: Evolving and adapting. See more recent information available at http://www.state.gov/s/ct/.

7. Department of Defense. (2003, Dec. 1). DoD Directive 1325.6, Guidelines for Handling Dissident and Protest Activities Among Members of the Armed Forces. Retrieved April 14, 2010, from http://www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/pdf/132506p.pdf